Helping? Or just not hurting?

From Newsday - more reasons to question Bush's credibiltiy

Bush and White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer went out of their way Thursday to cite a new survey by "Blue-Chip economists" that the economy would grow 3.3 percent this year if the president's tax cut proposal becomes law.

That was news to the editor who assembles the economic forecast. "I don't know what he was citing," said Randell E. Moore, editor of the monthly Blue Chip Economic Forecast, a newsletter that surveys 53 of the nation's top economists each month.

Deputy White House Press Secretary Claire Buchan insisted Friday that the survey, which mentioned "the likelihood that some version of the Bush administration's latest stimulus package will be enacted," justified the president's claim. Moore said that a survey taken in January before the president announced his plan forecast 3.3 percent annual growth between the last quarter of 2002 and the last quarter of 2003. A survey taken in February reached the same consensus.  

Economics tends to lose me sometimes, but if I'm reading that last paragraph right, saying that Bush's tax cut will help - in any way - increase annual growth at all isn't supported by the data.  If a survey taken before the plan was announced showing 3.3% annual growth, and a survey taken after the plan was announced shows 3.3% annual growth, then the plan isn't doing a damn thing to stimulate the economy.  All it's doing is not hurting it any.

Would anyone buy it for a moment if a scientist went out and measured the temperature (let's say, 70 degrees) on a Tuesday, drank a Coke on Wednesday and then noted it was over 70 on Thursday, announced that his research shows drinking a Coke helps ensure the temperature stays above 70?  We'd laugh him off the national stage! Too bad we have to wait 2 more years to do that to Bush.