« Darth Bush? | Main | US-backed leaders may have been murdered in Najaf »
April 10, 2003
The measure of success
Since the reported fall of Baghdad yesterday, I've seen many people go into a "gloat" mode, bragging about how the war is over, all the anti-war "naysayers" have been proven wrong, and the whole thing has been a great success. I disagree. The first phase of the war may be done, but the war - in full - has a ways to go.
As for saying that those who opposed the war having been "proven wrong", it has to be understood that nothing has truly changed in terms of why we opposed the war in the first place. Few, if any, of us were against the war because they thought Saddam would win. There has never been any serious doubt that we would succeed in pushing him from power. And while freedom for the Iraqi people - if it truly works out to be that - is an incredibly good outcome, this isn't a case of the ends justifying the means.
The Bush administration promoted the war under false pretenses, claiming they were willing to give diplomacy a chance, when it is clear that they never intended for any diplomatic outcome to succeed. The rationale for the war kept changing. We still don't know the real reason Bush wanted this war so badly. There were options other than armed aggression that would have helped deal with the issues of whether or not Saddam had biological, chemical or nuclear weapons and with achieving the freedom for the Iraqi people. To date, there has been no solid - or even credible - evidence of any ties between Saddam Hussein and Osama bin Laden, in spite of the many claims to the contrary from Colin Powell and others in the Bush administration.
The war was sold to us with lies, false 'evidence', insinuations, shifting goals and phoney 'diplomatic' efforts. These things will not change - they cannot change - and as such, those who opposed the war cannot be "proven" to be wrong. Whether the war is right or wrong is not a matter of absolute truth - it is a matter of opinion, and opinions can't truly be proven one way or the other.
So, has the war "worked"? Is it a "success"? Those are questions that can't be answered right away. There are still pockets of Fedayeen and Republican guards, who are loyal to Saddam and to his Baath party, who will likely continue fighting, though they will eventually be crushed. Currently, Saddam's regime no longer has control of several areas, including Bahgdad, but it's unclear if his regime has now lost power throughout the entire country (last I heard there was still some fighting going on in various areas). Even once he has lost total control of the nation, there will still be need for soldiers to help with law enforcement and general peace-keeping for quite a while to come.
Of course, the true measure of whether or not the "liberation" of the Iraqi people has been successful will come when they are able to have their first truly democratic elections, with no interference from us, and are able to establish, run, and maintain their own system of government under a constitution of their choosing, so that it truly reflects their own beliefs, desires, and values.
What happened this week is a step. An important step, but it is certainly not the end of the journey, and it is not a guarantee of success. The Iraqi people must be given the necessary assistance to develop a government and a nation that is appropriate to them, and learn how to run and defend it for themselves. Otherwise, this will never truly be a liberation, rather little more than an occupation.
The other measure of whether or not this war has been a success is something we may not know, in full, for another generation or more. What we have done brings with it the possibility - some would say probability - of having created so much anger and resentment, that it may bring a new generation of soldiers to the al-Qaedas, Hizballas, and Hamases of the world, with their anger focused directly at us. We may not see that anger right now, but it could be festering beneath the surface, both among Iraqis who have seen their country torn, now, by war, with untold numbers of their friends and families killed - including many who were conscripted - unwillingly - to be soldiers for Saddam and to attack our forces, and among the other Arab nation, who may now be concerned that they will be the next subjects of our bombs.
If things do not go well for the Iraqi people - if we provide them with the same kind of support we've provided to the Afghanis (which is so poor that the Taliban is actually beginning to make a comeback) - the cost will be paid in American blood, and in quantities beyond belief. It was noted, yesterday, that, when the communist governments fell a decade ago, there was great jubulation when the people first realized that they had gained their freedom. But a few months down the road, as the transition to the new governments, the new economies, and the new way of life proved more difficult than many had anticipated, and led to lawlessness and a lack of a sense of security, many wondered if this was truly what freedom was about, and some became a bit nostalgic for the old ways when they at least knew what to expect and felt safer.
Even if we do our best, it is likely that some in Iraq will experience some of these same feelings. They won't necessarily want Saddam's regime back, but they may long for the days when at least they knew what to expect under his control. Those who feel that way are another potential source of soldiers for the terrorists, as they may feel that their old lives were taken from them without their consent.
There are many other costs that we may not be able to see, and, yes, it is possible that things will actually go smoothly, but we don't know that right now. We can't. We're dealing with a situation that is somewhat rare - a people who have lived under great oppression, but who did not throw the shackles of oppression off for themselves; an outside force came in to remove the oppressor - and now these people are faced with an uncertain future being guided by a country that, at many points, had been considered an enemy.
Has the war been a success? Only time will truly tell, and we may not know the answer for many years.
Posted by thorswitch at April 10, 2003 12:07 PM
Trackback Pings
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.differentstrings.info/mt/mt-tb-ds.cgi/527
Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The measure of success:
» http://mega.km.ru/search/srch.asp?search=Gambling%20is%20so%20attractive%20%3Cbr%20/%3E%3Ca%20href=%22http://www.emistry.com/Online_poker/%22%3Eonline%20poker%3C/a%3E from
Attractiv [Read More]
Tracked on September 20, 2005 06:10 AM
» turning stone casino from turning stone casino
turning stone casino At seven o'clock, over a overstraining of sol'ace self-judgment a la N'oseroient Srore, he b [Read More]
Tracked on September 27, 2005 01:57 PM